Everyone always has opinions and predictions about the Academy Awards, and I'm no different. I can't even be bothered to come up with a fresh way to present my thoughts. But at least now you'll all know what I think, and that's really what this page is all about, isn't it? Kidding. Kinda.
Anyway, here are my picks for what WILL win, what SHOULD win, and what should have been nominated in the major categories. I will note that I have not had a chance to see all of the nominees, so my opinions are not as informed as they should be. I have not seen Little Women, Joker, or Marriage Story of the Best Picture nominees, but I trust the opinions I've heard about them from friends and other critics, but the Hindsight Awards in 5 years might see a few of those titles show up.
Best Picture:
Will Win – 1917
Should Win – 1917/Parasite
Should Have Been Nominated – Knives Out
I feel like Parasite is a lock for the Foreign Language Film award, which will allow the Academy to award Sam Mendes's World War I drama the big award, and I would have no problem with that. I loved 1917. Everything about that film fired on all cylinders. The same is true of Parasite, it was a surprise from start to finish, and I would really be fine with either film taking the top prize. I know Knives Out has its detractors, and the central mystery wasn't all that mysterious. However, the script was hilarious, the acting was top-notch, and the direction was superb. And it was a crowd-pleaser. It should have been represented in this category.
Best Director:
Will Win – Sam Mendes (1917)
Should Win – Sam Mendes (1917)
Should Have Been Nominated – James Mangold (Ford V Ferrari)
I would not be surprised to see 1917 win Best Picture and Parasite's Bong Joon-Ho win this award, or vice versa, but I feel like it will be tough to overlook Sam Mendes's achievement with 1917. The single-take editing, the performances, and the other choices made were all exactly right. And the same can be said for Parasite, so this is really just my best guess. James Mangold elevated what was at its heart a by-the-numbers historical biopic and made it interesting and layered. He also wasn't afraid to let it be downright hilarious in places. Mangold is a director who deserves more recognition, and he should have received it this year.
Best Actor:
Will Win - ?
Should Win - ?
Should Have Been Nominated – Daniel Craig (Knives Out) and Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
This one I seriously have no idea about. I've only seen one of the nominated performances, DiCaprio in Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. I was extremely glad for his nomination because it was a great comedic performance and allowed him to do some things he hasn't had the chance to do thus far. I feel like Phoenix in Joker is the odds-on favorite, but the film was so divisive, who knows? Jonathan Pryce has won several awards for The Two Popes, and Adam Driver has received great notices for his work in Marriage Story, so I feel like this is a toss-up. What I DO know is that Daniel Craig's Foghorn Leghorn-As-Detective Poirot in Knives Out was the best work I've seen him do yet, and I was hoping that another comedic performance would get acknowledged. Simply the way he said “A doughnut” was worthy of recognition, and I was disappointed that he didn't get named. Egerton was a revelation as Elton John in Rocketman, and I feel like Rami Malek's win for Bohemian Rhapsody doomed Egerton's chances this year. His work certainly deserved the nomination.
Best Actress:
Will Win – Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Should Win - ?
Should Have Been Nominated – Samara Weaving (Ready Or Not)
Again, I haven't seen enough of the nominated performances to have an educated opinion, but I would have had no problem with Samara Weaving being among them. Her work in Ready Or Not was the grounding element of the broad comedy and horror of a film that was a really pleasant surprise last year. She was always real, and that made the stakes seem as high as the concept.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win – Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
Should Win – Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
Should Have Been Nominated – Robert Downey, Jr (Avengers Endgame)
Brad Pitt has been so good for so long that it's easy to take him for granted. He makes it look easy. And he's never been easier than he was in Tarantino's latest. The fact is he's a co-lead. If Leo is a lead, so is he. But, we all know how this works, so he's in the supporting category, and he should be a lock to win it. It is some of the best work he's ever done, and I hope he takes home the trophy. As for Downey, obviously Endgame may not be his best work as Iron Man/Tony Stark (That is the first Iron Man film), but it would have been a fitting tribute to the work he did for the last 11 years, and his work in Endgame did cover a LOT of emotional ground, as well as running the gamut from comedy to tragedy. It would have been a defensible nomination to honor a decade-plus of stellar work.
Best Supporting Actress:
WIll Win - ?
Should Win - Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Should Have Been Nominated - Awkwafina (Jumanji: The Next Level)
Here’s another category that I simply cannot make a call on. I would put money on Laura Dern because she’s a veteran with a lot of good will, but who knows? ScarJo was outstanding in Jojo Rabbit, playing a role that we haven’t seen her in before, with an accent that worked. She danced, she was funny, she was tragic. I think she needs to be recognized, because she does have range, and I’m glad she got to show us a bit. As for my Jumanji statement, hear me out: Awkwafina had to play basically play Danny Devito, and she was hilarious. She was much better at it than Dwayne Johnson. She’s a talented actor, always fun to watch, and I will always support comedic performances getting awards show love.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win – Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
Should Win – Tarantino/Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won (Parasite)
Should Have Been Nominated – Guy Busick & R Christopher Murphy (Ready Or Not)
I feel like this will be QT's award yet again, but the love for Parasite and the quality of the script could end up bringing the statue to the foreign language favorite. Tarantino's script is shaggy and ambling, while Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won's work is as tight as a snare drum. Either choice would be welcome. Obviously I loved Ready Or Not. Busick and Murphy's script was hilarious, broad, and tightly-wound. If you haven't yet seen it, check it out. It would have been a novel entry in the Academy's nominations this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win – Great Gerwig (Little Women)
Should Win – Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Should Have Been Nominated – Markus & McFeely (Avengers: Endgame)
I think Gerwig will win for the screenplay to her film since she didn't get a director nomination and by all accounts deserved one. I also think she will win because it seems she has crafted a tremendous adaptation of the beloved novel. Having not seen the film yet, I can't say for sure. However, I HAVE seen Jojo Rabbit and Waititi's tightrope walk with that material was stellar, and I would have no problem with him winning the award. Plus, his speech would be great. I know that there was never a chance for the Avengers movie to get a screenplay nomination, but the fact is, that script did so many things right, and the margin for error was so very very small that it warrants mention. Markus & McFeely have crafted so many great stories for the Marvel Cinematic Universe that I think they deserve some recognition.
Best Film Editing:
Will Win – Yang Jin-mo (Parasite)
Should Win – Yang Jin-mo (Parasite)
Should Have Been Nominated – Lee Smith (1917)
Ordinarily I wouldn't include editing since it's not one of the “sexy” categories, but I just wanted to bitch a little. Parasite was an expertly-crafted film and in any other year I would have zero issue with it winning an Oscar for the editing, because it really is deserving. However, HOW DID 1917 NOT EVEN GET A NOMINATION?!?!? The film is edited to look like it's taking place in a single take. That is ridiculously difficult to do. Not only that, but the pacing of the film is PERFECT. Did the Academy decide that “Best” means “Most” after Bohemian Rhapsody's win last year? Whatever, it's fine.
So, there you have it. My picks for this year's major Academy Awards. I feel like I didn't see as many films in 2019 as I usually do in a given year. I'll have to work on that next year.
Thanks for reading, be back soon!